Post-Covid World: Why I Think India Would Weather the Pandemic Storm?

Vipul Singh

ABSTRACT: India does have a disadvantage in terms of health, as the hospital support system is not as strong as the US and Europe. But she has a demographic dividend on her side. In post-Covid situation of the world India might have an upper hand both in terms of economy and health. 

Today is 22 April, the fiftieth anniversary of Earth Day. Ideally, students and faculties would have celebrated the day with some talks, seminars and poster displays in the universities. But as we are shaken and self-quarantined by Covid-19, we have no choice but to stay indoors. The number of those getting infected is rising, and so governments all around the globe have been forced to resort to complete lockdown. The negative impact of such lockdowns are being felt most in terms of economic slowdown. The poor and workers who depend on their daily earnings have been the hardest hit. The crude oil price has crashed because there are no air and vehicle traffic. So the greatest concern for all the countries is, how to revive the economy after the pandemic subsides.

If there has been one most visible positive impact of the lockdowns, it is on the ecosystems. The rivers have come back to life. The air has become clean and pollution has vanished from cities. The skylines have regained its purest sky-blue tinge, and nights look starlit. Animals are making their presence known by taking over the empty roads of cities.

While even the advanced countries like the US are in the grip of economic crisis, nature has blossomed. It suggests that we have been responsible for the defacement of the nature. And we have done this by practicing the ‘culture of consumerism’. It reminds me of the economist, Simon Kuznets. He would argue that with higher incomes comes increased demand for goods and services that are less material intensive, and there is demand for improved environmental quality that leads to the adoption of environmental protection measures. Kuznets hypothesis seems to be hitting the right cord with advanced countries like Germany and the United States adopting low emission technologies.

That is perfectly fine. But one question that has always intrigued me is the very idea of economic growth. How is it possible that the world would be able to sustain economic growth indefinitely without running into resource constraints or vandalization of the environment beyond repair! After all our ever growing economic activity in terms of production and consumption necessitates larger inputs of energy and material. There is no doubt that technologies have reduced the pressure on energy resources, but our extravagant consumption patterns has also increased with much greater speed. This in turn is bringing about larger quantities of waste by-products. That is why the air before the pandemic was so polluted with greater proportion of nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, ozone and carbon monoxide.

It has often been suggested that the global warming caused by the carbon emissions have led to climate change. It is the industrialised nations who have been mainly responsible for global warming and climate change. They have, however, been able to cope with it with the help new technologies. But those least responsible for climate change are least able to cope with it due to their geographical location, low incomes, and low institutional capacity and their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture.

In post-Covid world, however, the above mentioned characteristics of developing countries may prove to be a boon. The pattern of consumerism in the developed and the developing countries are different.

During my recent visit to the US, I got an opportunity to see life of the American people very closely in cities like New York and Orlando. My friend, who is a famous and successful cardiologist there, used to drop me at Barnes and Noble Booksellers every morning, where I loved to spend my afternoons reading books. One of the many unique things that attracted me in the country is the book reading culture, across all age groups. You would often find youngsters reading in coffee shops. This hunger for knowledge is unmatched, and therefore, such huge book stores proliferate there. While coming back from his clinic, my doctor friend used to pick me up in his fuel guzzling SUV. We often visited the gigantic grocery and consumer items outlets. Quite often than not, I would see a small number of people (compared to Indian marts, like Easy Day or Big Bazar) making purchase there, and carrying goods in large quantities. Unlike India, most of them would purchase energy drinks, Coke and Pepsi, and other packed items in bulks.

One Friday, we went to a flesh superstore and he ordered for the upper half of a fresh lamb. I asked him why was he buying that big portion, as we were just four people, the other two being his wife and daughter in the sprawling house. He said that each one of us would have the liberty to eat a portion of our choice of the lamb. When I asked him what he would do with the rest, he answered that it would go in the trash. His reply forced me to contemplate. I could now link his innocently lavish and wasteful consumerism with my Wal-Mart experience, where Americans were making huge purchases. We did not realize on that evening of feast what I and my cherished friend were doing to his earth. A huge quantity of meat was up for the green dustbin in the backyard.

It reminds me of Indian consumers who do not feel ashamed of buying 250 grams of vegetable or mutton, so that it is fully consumed leaving no trash. Unlike the USA, most of the consumable items in India are sold in loose, and no packaging is done, so that very little go as trash in blue non-biodegradable container. Though I am a great admirer of American work and academic culture, but I would say that they, not only have over-consumed earth’s food resources, they have also burdened this earth with a lot of packaging material. Not surprisingly, the USA with just 4.42 per cent of the world’s population consumes about 30 per cent of the world’s resources, according to one estimate.

Another observation that made me think over the pattern of consumerism in the USA vis a vis India was that all the houses were large and centrally air conditioned with the air conditioning plant placed in the basement. I spent few days with my cousin staying in the outskirts of Chicago. He took me to his Indian friends’ houses which were fitted with air conditioning system, including his own very big house. In India, most of the houses in urban areas have necessity based window or split ACs. The energy consumption is much less than the centrally air conditioned systems. All the houses in the USA are fitted with cabinet-size refrigerators, televisions, washing machines, microwaves and many other household appliances, which run on electricity. A significant amount of electricity is used in water heating or room air conditioning. In comparison, the developing countries are far behind in the use of household appliances due to low per capita income. This lack of luxury appliances is a boon in disguise for the developing nations. The per capita energy consumption in countries like India is much less than any other developed country of the world. The colossal consumption of energy by developed world has huge implication on environment. Almost 75 per cent of the CO2 emissions which is mainly responsible for the greenhouse effect, come from huge energy consumption.

Despite lesser population pressures, consumerism in countries like the US is huge as compared to India. A major part of natural resources is consumed by the technologically advanced countries. Developing countries like India also overuse many resources due to its massive human population. However, the per individual consumption of resources in the developed countries is much greater. These countries are responsible for generating over 75 per cent of global industrial waste. The emission of greenhouse gases is very high because energy from the fossil fuels is consumed in relatively much greater quantities.

Given the consumption pattern and lifestyle, countries like the US would now have to depend a lot on the resources available in other countries. They are self-sufficient in grains, but their industries are export based. China, which has been the largest exporter of cheap material for industries, is hit very hard because of the pandemic and the supply chain is in dire strait. The global suspicion and stand of Europe and the US on depending less on China is another downside of China. The cascading impact of pandemic is certainly going to affect the movement of cargos.

Indian economy, on the other hand, is still largely an agricultural economy. She has huge food stock reserve that could be used for providing food to the poor and working class affected by shutdown of industries. The wheat and pulse crop has been very good this year, and that is why government has considered opening the lockdown in rural areas. The forecast of summer monsoon is that there is going to be normal rainfall during July-September, the season for rice production. The one major burden of Indian economy is the oil import, which has also reached at its lowest price, and that would help in balance of payment to some extent. India can be a huge exporter of rice and other grains if government acts strategically giving thrust to agricultural sector.

Pandemics of the past centuries have often continued for many months and sometime years. So lockdown is not a complete solution. Ultimately, governments would have to open up for herd immunities. India does have a disadvantage in terms of health, as the hospital support system is not as strong as the US and Europe. But she has a demographic dividend. It has a huge youth population. The available researches on Covid-19 suggest that the young are more liable to get out of the infection strongly. So when many people would contract the disease, the young population of India would be able to build up immune response to it.

In nutshell, in post-Covid situation of the world India might have an upper hand both in terms of economy and health. I am optimistic that she would be able to weather the storm of pandemic.

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